Photo : Kremlin.ru
18 February 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #440
War in Ukraine: Day 359
By Madhura S Mahesh
War on the Ground
On 17 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that there is no “alternative” to Ukraine’s victory in the Russia-Ukraine war. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy highlighted Ukraine’s achievements in countering Russian missile strikes and liberating areas from Russian occupation. He also claimed that there is no “alternative” to Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO. He said that Ukraine has received candidate status and is looking to start accession talks and added: “We are already integrated into the European economy in the logistics and energy areas.”
On 17 February, Zelenskyy disclosed the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany decision to provide 100 Leopard main battle tanks. In a press conference with Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Zelenskyy said: “This is really powerful support for Ukraine.” He also urged Ukrainian partners to fast-track aid supplies to Ukrainian personnel.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 17 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and the two discussed the future development of Russia-Belarus relations and interaction within the Union State. Putin highlighted that trade between Russia and Belarus increased to USD 43 billion in 2022. He also touched upon the 28 programmes launched to “strengthen” the Union State where Lukashenko added that 80 per cent of it has been completed. Putin outlined the need to create a “synergy” between the two countries to benefit both Russian and Belarusian industries.
On 17 February, Putin claimed that demand for gas will increase as it is the most valuable and real asset for a long time. Speaking at the press conference celebrating the 30th anniversary of Gazprom, said that in the next 20 years, consumption of gas will increase by 20 per cent mainly in China and the Asia-Pacific region. Putin added that Gazprom projects which have always met national interests and goals are being planned to keep in mind global oil market trends, and expert analysis and forecasts on changes. Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said: Our consumers can be assured that there will be plenty of gas in Russia for many, many decades to come. The key to this is a huge, the world's largest resource base. Putin said that due to Western sanctions, Gazprom faces the challenge to introduce new logistics routes.
On 17 February, Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Russia will issue a “tit-for-tat” response if the EU aims to transfer seized Russian assets to Ukraine. Zakharova alleges that EU nations have made significant investments in Russia in past years which has led to a large amount of European-owned assets in Russia and added that the amount of EU seized assets is greater than Russian assets seized by other nations. She added that Russia is looking to work with Western allies lawfully to rework any plans to seize Russian property. She referred to the US’s changed position on Venezuela and said: “So everything they say now about Russia, their accusations, threats, and blackmail… can flip-flop in a moment. Mark my words.”
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 17 February, the UK Defence Inteligence claimed that Russia has suffered 175-200,000 casualties since 24 February 2022. It said that both the Russian Defence Ministry and private military contractors (PMC) have lost around 40-60,000 personnel. The report said that since September 2022 Russian casualty rate increased due to the introduction of “partial mobilization.” It also said that the ratio of the number of people killed to injured is high due to extremely basic medical care provided across the Russian armed forces. The convict recruits deployed by Wagner PMC have suffered a casualty rate of around 50 per cent. The Defence Intelligence said that the majority of Russian casualties were caused by artillery.
On 17 February, the European Commissioner for Justice Didier Reynders said that a new investigation centre will be launched to look into crimes of aggression against Ukraine committed by Russia. Reynders said that the new international centre will be based in Hague, Netherlands and will be the first step in the launch of a special tribunal. He added: “The centre will have the objective to preserve and store evidence for future trials.”
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 17 February, Shell Global released its LNG Outlook 2023 where it stated that Europe increased its LNG imports by 60 per cent in 2022 due to the decrease in Russian gas imports. It said that Europe introduced several policies and regulations to ensure energy security and protect people from high energy costs. It added that LNG has become a key energy source for Europe which led to structural changes in the global markets. According to the report, the Global LNG trade in 2022 increased by 16 million to 396 million tonnes when compared to 2021 figures. It also said that the increased demand for LNG has led to high LNG prices which have forced many countries to switch to other forms of energy sources like coal which have a negative impact on global emissions.
On 17 February, the IMF mission for Ukraine head Gavin Gray said that it has reached a Staff Level agreement with Ukraine under the review of the Program Monitoring with Board Involvement (PMB). Gray said that agreement is the first step in the initiation of discussions for a full-fledged IMF support programme fund. Gray added that Ukraine has met all quantitative and indicative targets due to the efforts of the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian National Bank. He added: “A fully-fledged IMF program would be supportive of the Ukrainian government’s efforts toward EU accession.”
On 17 February, the WHO European Regional Director Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge said that WHO is working with 200 partners to provide health care services to around 13.6 million in 2023. Kluge said that they have increased its appeal to USD 240 million in 2023 out of which USD 160 million will be for Ukraine. He added that the Ukrainian people are also facing challenges to avail mental health and rehabilitation services. He urged the Ukrainian people to not let the fatigue win and reiterated the WHO’s commitment to delivering health care services to Ukraine as long as it takes.
References
“Zelensky at Munich Security Conference: Ukraine will win and beсome EU, NATO member,” Ukrinform, 17 February 2023
“The Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, to give Ukraine nearly 100 Leopard tanks,” Ukrinform, 17 February 2023
“Moscow warns EU over seized assets,” RT, 17 February 2023
“Meeting with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko,” kremlin.ru, 17 February 2023
“30th anniversary of Gazprom,” kremlin.ru, 17 February 2023
“Gazprom CEO Assures Putin Russia Has Enough Gas for Decades to Come,” Sputnik, 17 February 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 17 February 2023,” Twitter, 17 February 2023
Isabel da Silva “Centre investigating Russian war crimes in Ukraine to be set up in July,” Euronews, 17 February 2023
“Shell LNG Outlook 2023,” shell.com, 17 February 2023
“IMF Staff and Ukrainian Authorities Reach Staff Level Agreement on the review of Program Monitoring with Board Involvement (PMB),” imf.org, 17 February 2023
“Statement - Ukraine 1 year on: this is not the time to let fatigue win,” who.int, 17 February 2023
IN BRIEF
By Femy Francis
BULGARIA
Rosita Velkova announced the delay in joining of Eurozone
On 17 February, Finance Minister Rosita Velkova said that Bulgaria will not join the Eurozone on 01 January 2024 but would further delay it to one year on 01 January 2025. As Bulgaria faces a political crisis with the parliament dissolved. The parliamentary session was sabotaged to adopt the changes proposed to join the Eurozone. The pro-Russian and anti-European party “Vazrazhdane” was collecting referendum for the preservation of Bulgarian lev. Postponing joining will get them more time to collect signatories as also the Bulgarian society is skeptical of European currency due to high inflation. (“Bulgaria gives up its goal to join eurozone in 2024,” Euractiv, 17 February 2023)
FRANCE
EDF French Electricity Company at an all-time loss of EUR 17.9 billion
On 17 February, French electricity company EDF reported a record loss of EUR 17.9 billion in 2022 which pushed their debts to EUR 64.5 billion. France being one of the biggest nuclear-dependent countries due to maintenance need and repair led to decline in electricity output and loss. The repair was delayed due to COVID-19 emergencies which worsened the problem. It led France for the first time in four decades to become an importer in 2022 and along with the summer drought pushed the condition to worsen due to low water level to cool down the nuclear reactors. To revive, 43 of EDF nuclear reactors are back to full functioning. (“French power giant EDF posts record loss,” Deutsche Welle, 17 February 2023)
LATVIA
Central Statistical Bureau shows record high export and imports
On 17 February, Central Statistical Bureau revealed that Latvia has reached a record high in exports and imports in 2022. It exported around EUR 21.27 billion worth of goods and EUR 26.5 billion in imports in the financial year 2022. This comes in 29.3 per cent higher in exports and 35.8 per cent higher in imports from last year. The main commodity for Latvia was wood and products made of wood, mineral fuel, mineral oils, electrical machinery etc. The wood products were sent to mostly 22 per cent UK, 9.8 per cent to Sweden and 8 per cent to Germany. In 2022 EU was the major consumer with 45.3 per cent of Latvian goods exported to them. While they imported from 168 countries with five major partners being Lithuania, Estonia, Germany, Poland and Russian Federation. (“Latvia's exports and imports reached record levels in 2022,” Latvian Public Broadcasting, 17 February 2023)
MOLDOVA
US-sanctioned Moldovan Oligarch runs anti-western protest ads on Facebook
On 17 February, the Independent.co.uk reported that Facebook ran ads by the exiled Moldovan oligarch sanctioned by the US who had ties with Kremlin promoting protests against the government. The post criticized the inflation and the rising fuel price and targeting Moldova’s President Maia Sandu. This was posted by Ilan Shor an Israeli-born Moldovan oligarch the leader of the Russia-friendly Shor Party. He was convicted of USD one billion theft from a Moldovan bank and bribery, currently under exile in Israel. The ads show the security lapse Russia and its allies used to benefit from to spread propaganda and were not always immediately removed resulting in several million views. Sandu said: “Destabilization attempts are a reality and for our institutions, they represent a real challenge.” (David Klepper and Stephen McGrath, “Facebook ran ads in Moldova for oligarch sanctioned by US,” Independent.co.uk, 17 February 2023)
RUSSIA
VCIOM Poll shows 79.1 per cent approval for Putin
On 17 February, the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) survey showed that 79.1 per cent of 76 per cent of Russians approved of president Putin’s political and professional performance. The telephone survey was conducted from 6-12 February with 1,600 Russians. According to the survey, 79.1 per cent of Russians trusted Putin. A similar poll was conducted from 10-12 February among 1,500 adults, where 76 per cent were happy with Putin’s professional performance. (“Polls Show Trust in President Putin Stands at Almost 80% in Russia,” Sputnik, 17 February 2023)
REGIONAL
Charles Michel address in Munich Conference reflects EU’s multidimensional approach to global issues
On 17 February, the European Council President Chares Michel in his address at Munich security conference discussed on climate change, shifting economic paradigm, ongoing digital transformation, challenges to healthcare systems and the Ukraine war. He highlighted the need for international cooperation and mutual understanding to form new founding pacts. He stated how the war was influenced by history and stressed that countries should maintain their relationships with third tier countries outside the EU, stay close to democratic principles, human dignity and fundamental goals. He urged that a common goal need to be found where all of them work on more security, peace and stability for shared prosperity. EU has been the main sponsor of the UN system, which has been vital to fight against corruption and make sure the countries are able to prosper and attract private sector investments. He further adds the role of development banks to aid developing nations that are not able to access capital due to their loans. (“Address by President Charles Michel at the Munich Security Conference,” European Council, 17 February 2023)
AI act under debate
On 15 February, Members of the European Parliament discussed the AI act focusing on the alignment of the act to US NIST and the AI-based prohibited activities. The German constitutional court called the police use of predictive software unlawful. The AI act puts great interest in human oversight to protect itself from algorithmic errors. The debate brought out the argument to not adopt the data adequacy decision called on by the commission that allows the transfer of EU citizens' data to the US. The high-risk categorization was severely under attack questioning the logicality of the proposed text. Another meeting is expected to happen on 27 February. (Luca Bertuzzi and Molly Killeen “Tech Brief: AI Act delayed, digital diplomacy ambitions,” Euractiv, 17 February 2023)